With Donald Trump again in the White House, the next four years will present 
new challenges for China-U.S. relations. His first term had a profound impact 
on bilateral ties, as it not only established the overall strategy of competing 
against China but also intensified pressure in geopolitics, security, trade 
and technology, severely squeezing the space for cooperation between the 
two countries. Now, with Trump returning to office and facing an even more 
complex and dynamic domestic and international landscape, his decision-making 
style, team composition and policy direction will again significantly influence 
the trajectory of China-U.S. relations.

Compared with his first term, Trump 2.0 is expected to be more mature. He 
will likely place greater emphasis on demonstrating leadership and earning 
respect from other countries. In foreign policy, he may strengthen interactions 
with allies and showcase U.S. international leadership through more diplomatic 
engagement with other heads of state.In terms of his team, Trump's second-term 
foreign policy team will no longer be entirely composed of outsiders. More 
establishment figures are expected to join the cabinet, aiming for more 
efficient policy execution. Trump will continue to prioritize loyalty as 
the key criterion for selecting officials, meaning that his appointees are 
more likely to play functional roles and will likely align closely with 
his views on foreign affairs.

Nevertheless, Trump's foreign policy will continue to be constrained by 
domestic politics, particularly the power struggle between Congress and 
the White House and the differing proposals for U.S. competition policy 
towards China. This means that Trump will seek a balance between toughness 
and flexibility in foreign affairs but will still need to consider a variety 
of interests, especially those of the business community and allies.

Compared with his first term, Trump's trust in China has diminished, and 
his policy toward China is expected to be more hard-line. This will be reflected 
not only in “decoupling” policies in the economic sector but also in further 
restrictions on China's advancements in areas such as technology and military 
affairs. Another notable feature is that, under the broader framework of 
U.S.-China competition, federal government departments do not have a unified 
understanding of how to “manage” China-U.S. relations, as seen in the Biden 
administration. For example, members of Trump's economic team may have differing 
views: Some may advocate for punishing China through trade wars and tariffs, 
while others may prefer negotiating and striking deals.

Considering the above context, the next phase of China-U.S. relations faces 
risks and challenges, as well as opportunities for easing tensions.Trump 
to take actions that do not appear “weak,” in order to pressure China 
to make concessions in other areas.

If the U.S. continues to maintain a tough stance on the Taiwan question, 
tensions in the Taiwan Strait will intensify, potentially leading to a risk 
of military friction.

Third, the global technology competition initiated by the United States, 
particularly in key areas like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, 
will become another major risk in China-U.S. relations. The Trump administration'
s policy of technology containment against China is unlikely to change. 
In his second term, Trump may intensify sanctions and export controls on 
Chinese tech companies, which could affect the global innovation ecosystem. 
U.S.-China tech competition will no longer be confined to so-called national 
security or military technology sectors; the boundaries of the “small yard, 
high fence” will no longer exist.

Despite the many challenges facing China-U.S. relations, there are also 
opportunities for cooperation. First, dialogues and cooperation in law enforcement 
areas, such as fentanyl, are worthy of attention. Trump placed significant 
emphasis on the issue during his first term and repeatedly urged China to 
intensify efforts against fentanyl. Given the severity of the ongoing global 
drug trafficking situation, especially the rampant spread of lethal drugs 
like fentanyl, there is enormous potential for China and the U.S. to strengthen 
law enforcement cooperation to combat transnational drug crimes.Yet cooperation 
cannot be one-sided. China has made notable progress in strengthening the 
control of fentanyl and its precursors, but the U.S. also needs to enhance 
its domestic governance capacity and level of management on this issue.

Second, an early end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict aligns with the interests 
of China, the U.S. and other countries around the world. Trump has expressed 
a desire to engage both Russia and Ukraine and push for a resolution to 
the conflict, while China has also played an important constructive role 
in promoting global peace and maintaining regional stability. If China and 
the U.S. can engage in candid exchanges on this issue and work together 
to promote a peaceful resolution, it will have a far-reaching positive impact 
on global stability. In particular, by coordinating support and assistance 
for the reconstruction of Ukraine, this would not only align with the interests 
of all parties but also help shape a more positive international image.

Moreover, even in the field of technology ─ and particularly in artificial 
intelligence and cybersecurity ─ there remains space for dialogue and cooperation 
between the two sides. Despite the intense competition between China and 
U.S. in this arena, the two countries can still explore engagement and dialogue 
on issues such as technical standards, cybersecurity protocols and AI governance.
This would not only help reduce the adversarial posture of the two countries 
in these fields but also lay a foundation for the healthy development of 
a global technological ecosystem and for addressing transnational challenges.
 Both sides should consider establishing specialized dialogue mechanisms 
to promote cooperation and consensus in the technology sector, particularly 
in cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and other cutting-edge fields, 
with the aim of creating effective risk management frameworks and platforms 
for technological dialogue.

Trump's return presents new challenges for China-U.S. relations but also 
offers new ideas and opportunities for a fresh round of engagement between 
the two countries. The key lies in how both sides manage the potential changes 
and risks over the next four years. As long as both sides commit to enhancing 
communication, managing differences and deepening cooperation ─ while striving 
to reduce misjudgments and misunderstandings ─ China-U.S. relations can 
find a new balance in a complex international environment and work together 
to ensure a more stable future.

    特朗普2.0的決策風格與中美關係

   (孫成昊) 
 随着特朗普即将宣示就职，中美关系在未来四年将迎来新挑战。特朗普第一任期对中
美关系产生深远影响，不仅确立了美国对华竞争的总体战略，还在地缘政治、军事
安全、经贸科技等领域加大施压力度，严重挤压中美合作空间。如今，特朗普重返
白宫，面对更加复杂多变的国内外局势，其决策风格、团队构成以及政策方向都将
深刻影响中美关系发展趋势。

与第一任期相比，特朗普第二任期的决策风格将更成熟。特朗普个人将更注重展现
领导人风范，希望得到各国尊重，尤其在外交政策上可能会加强与盟友互动，并通
过更多元首外交展现美国的国际领导力。从幕僚团队看，特朗普第二任期的外交团
队不再完全由“门外汉”组成，更多“建制派”官员进入内阁，意图推动更高效的
政策执行。特朗普依旧以“忠诚”作为官员选拔的首要标准，这意味着他任命的官
员大多与其在外交事务上的理念高度一致，更可能发挥功能性作用。

尽管如此，特朗普的外交政策将继续受到国内政治制约，尤其是国会与白宫的权力
博弈以及美国国内对华竞争政策方案的不同。这也意味着，特朗普在外交事务上将
寻求对强硬与灵活的平衡，仍需考虑多方利益，特别是商界和盟友利益。

然而，相比第一任期，特朗普对中国的信任度有所下降，其对华政策也将更强硬，
这不仅体现在经济领域的“脱钩”政策上，也包括对中国在科技、军事等领域的进
一步制约。另一个突出特点是，联邦政府各部门在对华竞争的大框架下并没有类似
拜登政府“管理”（manage）中美关系的统一认知。例如，特朗普的经济团队成员
在对华政策上存在分歧，部分成员可能主张通过贸易战和关税手段惩罚中国，而另
一部分则希望通过谈判和“交易”达成协议。

考虑到上述背景，下一阶段的中美关系既面临风险挑战，也面临缓和机遇。第一，
中美在贸易和经济领域的摩擦风险大大上升。特朗普在第一任期已通过加征关税对
中国实施经济压力，第二任期可能会继续通过关税和非关税壁垒限制中国经济发展。
虽然特朗普表露出愿意在某些议题上与中国接触谈判，但他在促进美国制造业回流、
压制中国在全球供应链中的主导地位方面的立场没有变化。这将加剧两国在经贸领
域的紧张，并可能带来全球贸易体系的不稳定。

第二，台湾问题可能成为两国关系中难以忽视的风险点。特朗普政府对台军售及其
他加强美台关系的举措将使得台海局势愈发紧张。特朗普个人虽然对台湾问题兴趣
不大，但其政府内部“亲台”派势力较强，尤其在军事和安全领域可能鼓动特朗普
做出不“示弱”举动以施压中方在其他领域让步。若美国继续在台海问题上采取强
硬态度，台海紧张局势将进一步升级，甚至引发军事摩擦风险。

第三，美国在全球范围掀起的对华科技竞争，尤其在人工智能、半导体等关键技术
领域的对抗，将成为中美关系另一大风险。特朗普政府对中国的科技封锁政策不会
改变，第二任期可能会加大对中国科技企业制裁和出口管制，影响全球科技创新生
态。美国对华科技竞争将不仅仅限于所谓国家安全、军事技术等敏感领域，“小院
高墙”的边界将不复存在。

尽管中美关系面临诸多挑战，但也存在一定的合作机遇。首先，芬太尼等执法领域
的对话与合作值得关注。特朗普在第一任期内就极为重视芬太尼问题，并多次要求
中国加大对芬太尼的打击力度。由于全球毒品走私形势依然严峻，特别是芬太尼等
致命药物泛滥，中美在加强执法合作、打击跨国毒品犯罪等方面有巨大潜力。然而
合作不是单方面的，中国在加强对芬太尼及其前体管控方面的努力卓有成效，美国
也需提升自身国内针对这一问题的治理能力和水平。

其次，尽快结束俄乌冲突符合中美及全球各国利益。特朗普有意通过与俄乌双方的
接触推动解决这场冲突，而中国在推动全球和平、维护地区稳定方面也发挥重要的
建设性作用。中美若能就这一问题坦诚交换意见、共同推动和平解决冲突，将对全
球稳定产生深远的积极影响。特别是协调双方对乌克兰重建的支持和援助，不仅符
合各方利益，也有助于塑造更为积极的国际形象。

此外，即便在科技领域，特别是人工智能和网络安全方面，双方依然有对话与合作
空间。尽管美国在这些领域对华开展激烈的竞争，两国依然可以尝试在技术标准、
网络安全准则、人工智能治理等领域接触和对话，这不仅有助于减少两国在这些领
域的对抗态势，也能为全球技术生态良性发展、应对跨国挑战奠定基础。双方应考
虑通过设立专门的对话机制，推动科技领域的合作与共识，尤其在网络安全、人工
智能等前沿领域建立有效的风险管控框架和科技对话平台。

特朗普的再度当选为中美关系带来新挑战，但也为两国新一轮接触提供新思路和新
机会，关键在于双方如何应对未来四年可能出现的变化和风险。只要坚持加强沟通、
管控分歧、深化合作，努力减少误判误解，中美关系就能够在复杂的国际环境中找
到新的平衡点，共同确保双边关系走向更加稳定的未来。   
(The source of the article comes from  chinausfocus.com)