The idea of “cold war” was only of passing interest to historians before 
U.S. President Donald Trump took office. Few believed that a new cold war 
would break out between major countries today.But the recent flurry of crazy 
moves by the Trump administration raises fears of such an outcome between 
China and the United States. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered 
a speech at the Richard Nixon presidential library on July 23, delivering 
what is known as a new cold war declaration. He announced that the U.S. would 
build “a new alliance of democracies” to “change Communist China.”

Obviously, some elites and political leaders in the United States, plagued 
by the lingering mentality of the 20th century's Cold War, are trying to 
restart it, only with China as the target, not the Soviet Union, which has 
already collapsed. Nowadays, it is China that's defined s a “strategic 
competitor.”But if Washington insists on waging a new cold war against 
China, it may be making the most serious strategic mistake since the end 
of World War II.

First of all, China is not the Soviet Union of those days. Politically, 
the Communist Party of China, although it is the ruling party, has freed 
itself from ideological rigidity and has instead adopted flexible, pragmatic 
policies. While the country continues to develop its socialist system with 
Chinese characteristics, it has never sought to export its economic and 
social models ù which, in fact, are not replicable.Economically, whether 
the Western world recognizes it or not, the market has played an important 
role in China's economic development. As a matter of fact, market forces 
and openness to the wider world are two significant drivers behind the country'
s decades of impressive economic growth. In 2019, its foreign trade amounted 
to $4.58 trillion, with outbound foreign direct investment reaching $117.12 
billion. Today, China is a major trading partner and source of investment 
for many countries.

More important, China has never defined itself as an anti-American country 
in its foreign strategy since the establishment of bilateral diplomatic 
relations in the 1970s. Despite disapproval reflected in some U.S. foreign 
policies, China has never lent support to a proxy war against the U.S. or 
sought to form an international alliance against it. In addition, China 
has no intention of upending the current international system, from which 
it has reaped huge benefits; rather, it strives to avoid confrontations 
with the United States and aims to partner with it to enhance the international 
system.

Second, the world is different from what it was in the early days of the 
postwar era. After the end of the Cold War, the rapid development of science 
and technology and global economic integration transformed the world into 
a global village driven by market forces. The economies of all nations have 
been intertwined.In this context, any attempt to unilaterally “decouple”
 will backfire, and the general public will bear the brunt of such a foolish 
act. In the age of globalization, no country can address global challenges 
on its own. Many issues depend on international cooperation, from the rampant 
COVID-19 pandemic to terrorism, from climate change to nuclear non-proliferation 
and transnational crime.

Finally, in the Information Age, it makes no sense to build opposing camps 
by manufacturing ideological confrontations. On one hand, the moral high 
ground and soft power that the United States has acquired in the postwar 
era are on the decline. The ideals that it champions, such as freedom, democracy
, equality and human rights, have lost their luster due to political polarization 
and racial discrimination within the country, and its hegemony on the world 
stage is cracking. Domestically, as a result of a pandemic that seems out 
of control, some American elites have begun to reflect on problems in the 
U.S. social and political systems.On the other hand, unlike the Cold War 
era, creating ideological confrontations through an information monopoly 
leads nowhere. After all, because of technology, people-to-people exchanges 
have reached an unprecedented level.No matter how some people in the United 
States smear the CPC and attack China ideologically, it is impossible to 
erase the fact that the CPC has led hundreds of millions of people out of 
poverty and achieved success in pandemic control. It is likewise impossible 
to incite an ideological shoot-out in the international community.

With China's rapid rise in power, conflicts of interest between the world's 
two largest economies in the political, economic, technological and diplomatic 
sectors have grown more pronounced. However, China is not a natural enemy 
of the United States. At present, both countries need to stay calm and leverage 
their wisdom to manage their conflicts, rather than start a new cold war.While 
it is easy for Americans to shift the blame to China, this is not the solution 
to the real problems faced by the United States. Anyone in Washington who 
continues to see China as an enemy will definitely find a rival never before 
seen. In short, a cold war would be the most serious U.S. strategic mistake 
since the end of World War II, and U.S. citizens and the wider international 
community would pay a heavy price for it.

(The source of the article comes from  chinausfocus.com)

中文

重启冷战或将成为美国战后最大战略失误
 王震 ( Zhen Wang)
 
在特朗普上台之前，“冷战”似乎只是历史学家们才会关注的词汇,因为没有多少人
相信大国之间还会再度爆发冷战。然而，特朗普政府近期的一系列疯狂举措再度引
起人们对于中美“新冷战”的担忧。7月23日，美国国务卿蓬佩奥在尼克松图书馆前
发表被称为“新冷战宣言”的演说，宣称美国将组建“一个新的民主联盟”，以
“改变共产党中国”。

显然，美国一些社会精英和政治领导人仍然怀揣冷战思维，试图重启冷战。只不过
这次冷战的目标不是已经烟消云散的苏联，而是被特朗普政府认定为“战略竞争对
手”的中国。如果华盛顿执意对华发动新冷战的话，美国或将犯下二战以来最严重
的战略错误。

首先，今日之中国并非当年的苏联。在政治上，中国共产党虽然是当前中国唯一的
执政党，但早已不再执着于原来僵化的意识形态，而是采取了非常灵活务实的政策。
虽然中国继续坚持具有“中国特色”的社会主义制度，但中国从未寻求主动输出其
经济和社会发展模式，事实上中国模式在很大程度上也是不可复制的。在经济上，
无论西方国家是否承认，市场机制都已在中国经济发展中扮演了非常重要的角色。
市场和开放正是数十年来中国经济增长的重要法宝。2019年，中国进出口贸易为4.58万
亿美元，对外直接投资1171.2亿美元。中国已经成为许多国家的主要贸易伙伴和投
资来源。

尤为重要的是，自中美建交以来，中国在对外战略上从未自我界定为一个“反美”
国家。中国虽然并不认同美国的一些外交政策，但是从未在任何地区支持反美的代
理人战争，或是寻求组建一个反美的国际联盟。作为一个现有国际体系的受益者，
中国并未寻求颠覆现存国际体系，而是小心翼翼地避免与美国正面冲突，寄望于通
过中美合作来改进和完善现有国际体系。

其次，当今世界已不同于二战结束初期的世界。冷战结束后，科学技术和世界经济
一体化的快速发展已经让我们生活的世界变成一个“地球村”，各国经济已经形成
你中有我我中有你的格局。在市场机制作用下，各国经济早已融为一体，任何试图
单方面“脱钩”的尝试都会给自身经济带来不可避免的伤害，而民众则会成为此类
愚蠢行为的主要受害者。事实上,如今已经没有哪个国家可以单独面对全球化时代人
类社会所面临的挑战。无论是持续肆虐的新冠疫情、恐怖主义，还是进展迟缓的气
候变化、核不扩散、跨国犯罪等议题，都需要国际社会通力合作。

最后，在信息化时代，通过制造意识形态对立来构建对立阵营的做法已经行不通了。
一方面，美国自身在战后所形成的道义优势和软实力正在逐步下降。美国长期倡导
的所谓自由、民主、平等、人权等理念，在自身政治极化、种族歧视、对外霸权等
事实面前早已失去了吸引力。在近乎失控的新冠疫情面前，一些美国精英也开始反
思其社会和政治机制中的问题。另一方面，在人类交往空前密切的当下，冷战期间
借助信息垄断来制造意识形态对抗的做法已经失去意义。无论美国一些人如何抹黑
中国共产党，如何在意识形态上攻击中国，都不可能消除中国共产党带领数亿民众
摆脱贫困并成功抗疫的事实，更遑论他们要在国际社会制造出一个你死我活的意识
形态对抗。

当然，随着中国实力的快速增长，中美之间在政治、经济、科技、外交等领域的利
益冲突也日渐凸显。但是，中国并不是美国的天然敌人。当前中美双方需要的是管
控利益冲突的冷静和智慧，而不是以刻舟求剑的方式重启冷战。指责中国并不难，
但这并不是解决美国自身问题的出路。如果华盛顿有人执意要把中国视为一个“敌
人”，那注定会收获一个前所未有的敌手。简言之，重启冷战将成为二战以来美国
最大的战略失误，并将使美国民众和国际社会付出沉重代价。